Andrew Corns discusses in immense detail the impact Manchester City and the rest of the league have had financially on the English top-flight. Leave comments below whether you agree or disagree.
What makes the Premier League the best, most exciting league in world football? Is it the amount of money flowing into the league from worldwide TV deals? In part. Is it the intensity of the yearly battle for relegation/safety that has seen historic clubs such as Aston Villa and Newcastle United knocked out recently? Without a doubt. Is it the belief that from top to bottom, the league is more competitive than any other in Europe on a weekly basis? Sure. But is it primarily the belief from supporters across the world that if things go right for their club, maybe just maybe another story to rival Leicester City’s is never too far into the horizon?
Coming into the 2018/2019 Premier League season, not a single time has a club repeated as champion. Let that sink in for a moment. Given the lack of parity across the four other major European leagues (we’ll get into that deeper), it’s a testament to the league that in any given season, anywhere between four and six clubs have a realistic chance to get hands on the trophy in May.
This was capped off by the miracle run Leicester City made in 2015/2016 to defy all expectations and do what every pundit and fan felt was impossible through much of that run. Suddenly a small club with no pedigree at the elite level and with a squad of players who were not household names instilled belief in every other Premier League and Championship side that they too could win it all.
The unfortunate consequence to Leicester’s title winning season was what Manchester City have done in the three years since then to ensure that: A) A club of that stature never dares come close again and B) the Premier League evolves into a one (or possibly two) club dominated league over the next decade plus.
Before we go off on a deep dive into the financial truths of top six clubs’ spending in recent years or look at the direction City would like to steer the Premier League compared to Europe’s other four top leagues, it’s worth noting a few things about the 2015/2016 season.
Let’s begin by looking back at the final table that season. Leicester City won the title with 81 points, followed by Arsenal at 71 points, Tottenham at 70 points and Manchester City at 66 points.
That season, Manchester United ended in fifth, Liverpool in eighth and Chelsea all the way back in 10th. To put that into contemporary context, Manchester City are already on 71 points this season with nine games remaining and Liverpool have 70 points with the same number of matches left. When you look at where the current top six clubs stood managerially that season, it’s quite shocking.
Arsenal still had Arsene Wenger, but the game had passed him by at that point and the writing was on the wall that his tenure in charge was nearing the end.
Chelsea sacked Jose Mourinho on December 17th as they sat disastrously close to the relegation zone and decided Guus Hiddink was best suited to at least get them back in the top half of the table.
Liverpool sacked Brendan Rodgers on October 4th and brought in Jurgen Klopp to instill a new mentality and philosophy on the club as a whole. The squad they had that season was a shell of the title challenging side of 2013/2014 after losing talisman, Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez and Raheem Sterling.
Manchester City had Manuel Pellegrini at the helm in his final year with the club before Pep Guardiola’s arrival. He was hamstrung with an ageing side that were in desperate need of reinforcements.
Manchester United employed Luis van Gaal who would also be in his last year in charge of the club and approached each game with a lack of creativity that had knives out from United supporters far and wide.
Tottenham had the best manager in place with Mauricio Pochettino, but they ultimately fell apart at the end of the season and finished in third place after being the side that kept up with Leicester for the longest duration.
It’s impossible to take anything away from what Leicester did that season and it still stands as one of the greatest accomplishments in modern sporting history, but the idea that that side even breaking the top six this season is downright laughable. That season was a perfect mix of the elite clubs all going through either a transition period or complete meltdown unlike anything we’ve ever seen happen simultaneously before or since.
The most important factors in Manchester City’s ascension as the most powerful club in England are down to the wealth available through Sheikh Mansour, the club’s willingness to spend lavishly in every area on and off the pitch and a desire to win by any means necessary, even if it is in direct violation of Financial Fair Play rules.
From my point of view, imbalance in spending between Manchester City and every other elite club in England over the last four years is obvious to see. What consistently baffles me is this new narrative being driven throughout social media that clubs, specifically Liverpool are spending hundreds of millions and they’re all operating at the same level. When accurately viewing spend over the last four years, you must consider total net spend (both sales and purchases) in order to truly see where the gap is between Manchester City and the rest of their main competition. Here is a closer look at the year by year breakdown for England’s top six clubs (note all figures represent millions in pounds).
When viewed through a lens that only extends back 12 months, Liverpool have outspent Manchester City. That doesn’t erase the fact that from 2015-2017, Manchester City’s net spend was £477.64 million more than Liverpool’s and £188.59 million more than the next highest, Manchester United.
Of course, Manchester City didn’t spend much on new signings over the last year after adding 15 players in three years that are prominent players in the current squad. During those four years, the most Manchester City got from the sale of a player was £25.2 million for Alvaro Negredo.
To say Liverpool have splashed cash recklessly is an outright lie. Had they not managed to wrestle £121.5 million from Barcelona in the sale for Phillippe Coutinho, there is no way they would have had the ability to add Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and Fabinho, the three key pieces to their reinforced spine.
If rumours are to be believed, Pep Guardiola believes his team needs substantial additions over the summer in order to continually dominate across four competitions and has requested 3-4 more players that could total upwards of £265 million. That number is ludicrous and the odds that City would be willing to sell any key pieces in their current squad to balance the net spend is unlikely.
This then puts pressure on Liverpool, Manchester United and the rest of the league to wildly spend hundreds of millions just to maintain any notion that they could legitimately challenge City next season for the league crown. Liverpool will be expected to add one or two players to reinforce their team next season, but don’t bet on them breaking the bank and the anticipated sales of several fringe players will see them recoup some of that money.
Sure, Manchester United have the financial resources to back an overhaul, but it remains to be seen if Ed Woodward will back Ole Gunnar or any other new manager more than he did Jose Mourinho last summer. Roman Abramovich and Chelsea will bring in an addition or two, but also should get a war chest from the sale of Eden Hazard to Real Madrid if that move comes to fruition. Arsenal and Tottenham? Do any of us count on either of those clubs going all out financially to try and keep up with City? History wouldn’t give you reason to say yes.
This summer will only further open the gap between Manchester City’s overcrowded squad that’s easily 2-3 deep at every position with truly world class players. Liverpool have fought bravely this season to cause City reason to sweat as they look to be the first club in a decade to repeat as Premier League champions.
They have a young, talented team with most key players locked down to long-term contracts, but it’s not realistic to think they’ll manage the same points total as they have already and only lose once in 29 league matches.
For a team to compete with Manchester City, they practically must go unbeaten and keep the amount of times they drop points under five. Could any other side in England have maintained the level City have this year being without their two key men (Kevin de Bruyne & Fernandinho)? Not a chance. Would Liverpool even have a sniff at a title challenge if Virgil van Dijk or Mohamed Salah was on the sideline for a month or more?
You don’t even need to look far geographically to see where Manchester City are driving the Premier League towards over the next five to ten years. There are four other major European football leagues, those in Germany, Spain, France and Italy respectively. Here is a view of how each of those leagues finished the last 6 seasons.
How is 2019 looking in each of these leagues? Bayern Munich are having one of these worst seasons in years and are still level with Dortmund at the top and trending towards another championship. Barcelona are cruising in La Liga with a seven-point lead over Atletico Madrid, PSG have a 17-point lead in Ligue 1 with a game in hand over Lille and Juventus hold a 16-point lead over Napoli on the way to their eighth Serie A crown in a row.
Manchester City are singularly driven to put their name alongside Bayern Munich, Barcelona, PSG and Juventus and have taken the any means necessary approach to achieving that.
What it’s done is slowly, but surely create a competitive disadvantage for every other club in England. Ask yourselves this; when you look at the 2019/2020 Premier League season, who has a realistic chance to beat Manchester City over the course of thirty-eight games? Even if Liverpool fend them off this season and grab their first Premier League winner’s medal, can they deal with an angrier Manchester City next season that drops over a quarter of a billion pounds on additional superstars?
I apologize if this sounds like my goal is simply to bash Manchester City. All I am trying to do is open eyes to where I see the league trending based on recent data and offer a warning that what we’ve all come to love about the Premier League is at risk. I don’t dislike Pep Guardiola, the manager or human being.
I actually admire the way City plays football from a philosophical point of view. The responsibility is on UEFA, the English FA, etc. to step in immediately and create a Financial Fair Play structure people will actually take seriously for the betterment of every Wolverhampton Wanderers fan, every Tottenham Hotspur fan or any other supporter of any number of clubs who still dream of seeing their side do the impossible before we’re too far gone and it becomes a league of one.
My greatest fear as a football fan is we will see Manchester City win six or seven league titles over the next decade and the joy I have every weekend will fade little by little until there’s nothing left.
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